ATP tennis predict — Jakub Paul vs Niels Mcdonald

Challenger Hard Roanne challenger · qualification - 1. round 14:30

Predicted probability

Jakub Paul

Switzerland

67.14%

Niels Mcdonald

Germany

32.86%

Average Odds

1.88 / 1.84

Market probability

49.46% / 50.54%

Why This Prediction?

Jakub Paul is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1556 vs 1403), a higher Elo rating (1635 vs 1537) and more wins on hard courts (44 vs 1).

Player Comparison

1635.2 Elo 1536.7

1556.1 Elo (surface) 1403.2

82 Wins (Challenger) 10

44 Wins (surface) 1

6 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.071 Dominance ratio 0.976

1090 Rank 491

27.6 Age None

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Jakub Paul

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

1 matches with market odds since 2026-08-17.

Niels Mcdonald

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-06-23.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jakub Paul Niels Mcdonald

1st Serve In %

58.4%

64.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.8%

59.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.4%

33.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.9%

26.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.0%

53.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.17

0.31

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.42

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.4%

59.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.6%

67.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.1%

46.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.6%

33.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.9%

52.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.17

0.30

Double Faults per Service Game

0.07

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jakub Paul Niels Mcdonald

Break Points Saved %

54.1%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

32.5%

33.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.3%

53.3%

Break Points Converted %

47.9%

43.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Jakub Paul and Niels Mcdonald have never played each other.

Jakub Paul vs Niels Mcdonald — Prediction