ATP tennis predict — Jakub Paul vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Challenger Hard Roanne challenger · 1. round 13:30

Predicted probability

Jakub Paul

Switzerland

29.54%

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Norway

70.46%

Average Odds

4.39 / 1.19

Market probability

21.33% / 78.67%

Why This Prediction?

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1724 vs 1586), a higher Elo rating (1741 vs 1655) and a stronger serve (63.0% vs 57.0% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1655.3 Elo 1740.9

1585.6 Elo (surface) 1724.1

84 Wins (Challenger) 55

46 Wins (surface) 34

8 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.071 Dominance ratio 0.975

1090 Rank 152

27.6 Age 20.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Jakub Paul

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

3 matches with market odds since 2026-08-17.

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jakub Paul Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

1st Serve In %

58.4%

57.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.8%

71.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.4%

52.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.9%

32.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.0%

52.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.17

0.31

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

63.3%

58.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.5%

66.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.5%

59.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.7%

22.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.8%

46.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.11

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.09

0.13

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jakub Paul Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Break Points Saved %

54.1%

67.1%

Break Points Converted %

32.5%

36.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

61.0%

52.5%

Break Points Converted %

46.8%

42.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Jakub Paul 0 – 1 Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Clay Valencia CH · 2026-05-12

Q2

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer #124

Jakub Paul #533

6-7(8) 6-1 6-4

2 Aces 1

9 Double Faults 1

104 Service Points 85

70 First Serve In 46

49 First Serve Won 24

10 Second Serve Won 16

4 Break Points Saved 1

8 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Jakub Paul vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer — Prediction