ATP tennis predict — Jakub Mensik vs Shintaro Mochizuki

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 1. round 01:25

Predicted probability

Jakub Mensik

Czech Republic

65.62%

Shintaro Mochizuki

Japan

34.38%

Average Odds

1.10 / 7.23

Market probability

86.79% / 13.21%

Why This Prediction?

Jakub Mensik is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1867 vs 1663), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1728 vs 1619) and a stronger serve (65.2% vs 61.3% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1867.0 Elo 1662.9

1727.5 Elo (surface) 1618.7

105 Wins 55

78 Wins (surface) 37

9 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 1

0.969 Dominance ratio 1.125

18 Rank 117

21.0 Age 23.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Jakub Mensik

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–4L · 63.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Shintaro Mochizuki

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–3L · 78.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-06-03.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jakub Mensik Shintaro Mochizuki

1st Serve In %

61.8%

49.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.0%

70.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.3%

46.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

21.7%

28.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.3%

55.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.51

0.21

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.39

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

57.1%

56.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.8%

70.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.7%

47.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.2%

33.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.9%

60.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.67

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.37

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jakub Mensik Shintaro Mochizuki

Break Points Saved %

60.9%

Break Points Converted %

44.9%

48.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

66.7%

48.2%

Break Points Converted %

54.7%

42.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Jakub Mensik 0 – 1 Shintaro Mochizuki

Hard US Open · 2026-09-01

1. round

Jakub Mensik #18

Shintaro Mochizuki #117

6-1 6-4 7-5

18 Aces 1

6 Double Faults 8

95 Service Points 80

58 First Serve In 34

43 First Serve Won 19

16 Second Serve Won 19

1 Break Points Saved 4

4 Break Points Faced 11

27 Winners 14

32 Unforced Errors 40

1.1 Average Odds 7.0

Clay Ostrava CH · 2023-04-24

R16

Shintaro Mochizuki #222

Jakub Mensik

1-6 6-2 7-6(4)

2 Aces 12

3 Double Faults 3

117 Service Points 90

64 First Serve In 53

42 First Serve Won 37

21 Second Serve Won 13

11 Break Points Saved 8

17 Break Points Faced 13

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Jakub Mensik vs Shintaro Mochizuki — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Jakub Mensik — Last 10

Shintaro Mochizuki — Last 10