ATP tennis predict — Jakub Mensik vs Jurij Rodionov

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 2. round 20:00

Predicted probability

Jakub Mensik

Czech Republic

76.71%

Jurij Rodionov

Austria

23.29%

Average Odds

1.12 / 6.33

Market probability

84.97% / 15.03%

Why This Prediction?

Jakub Mensik is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1874 vs 1692), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1740 vs 1736) and a stronger serve (64.7% vs 63.8% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1874.3 Elo 1692.2

1740.3 Elo (surface) 1735.6

106 Wins 69

79 Wins (surface) 30

9 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.004 Dominance ratio 0.975

18 Rank 143

21.0 Age 27.3

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Jakub Mensik

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–4L · 63.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Jurij Rodionov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jakub Mensik Jurij Rodionov

1st Serve In %

61.8%

59.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.0%

72.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.3%

48.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

21.7%

28.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.3%

43.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.51

0.61

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

57.1%

60.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.8%

70.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.7%

48.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.2%

30.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.9%

47.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.67

0.43

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jakub Mensik Jurij Rodionov

Break Points Saved %

60.9%

64.9%

Break Points Converted %

44.9%

37.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

66.7%

59.4%

Break Points Converted %

54.7%

31.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Jakub Mensik 0 – 0 Jurij Rodionov

Hard US Open · 2026-09-03

2. round

Jakub Mensik #18

Jurij Rodionov #143

6-3 3-6 6-2 6-3

14 Aces 15

6 Double Faults 5

91 Service Points 112

52 First Serve In 67

44 First Serve Won 50

26 Second Serve Won 20

1 Break Points Saved 9

2 Break Points Faced 13

47 Winners 37

26 Unforced Errors 26

1.1 Average Odds 6.3

Jakub Mensik vs Jurij Rodionov — Prediction