ATP tennis predict — Jakub Mensik vs Jacob Fearnley

ATP Hard Montreal · 2. round 00:10

Predicted probability

Jakub Mensik

Czech Republic

54.74%

Jacob Fearnley

Great Britain

45.26%

Average Odds

1.40 / 2.98

Market probability

68.04% / 31.96%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1850.9 Elo 1869.6

1681.3 Elo (surface) 1705.3

100 Wins 39

73 Wins (surface) 21

9 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.041 Dominance ratio 1.079

17 Rank 110

20.9 Age 25.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Jakub Mensik

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–4L · 63.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Jacob Fearnley

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–2L · 81.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jakub Mensik Jacob Fearnley

1st Serve In %

61.8%

59.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.0%

72.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.3%

48.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

21.7%

28.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.3%

55.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.51

0.53

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.43

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

57.1%

56.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.8%

73.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.7%

49.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.2%

31.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.9%

53.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.67

0.34

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.42

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jakub Mensik Jacob Fearnley

Break Points Saved %

60.9%

62.4%

Break Points Converted %

44.9%

42.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

66.7%

47.5%

Break Points Converted %

54.7%

43.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Jakub Mensik 0 – 0 Jacob Fearnley

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-06

2. round

Jakub Mensik #17

Jacob Fearnley #110

6-3 3-6 6-3

5 Aces 9

3 Double Faults 2

87 Service Points 88

55 First Serve In 44

38 First Serve Won 34

15 Second Serve Won 23

5 Break Points Saved 6

9 Break Points Faced 9

0 Winners 0

0 Unforced Errors 0

1.4 Average Odds 3.0

Jakub Mensik vs Jacob Fearnley — Prediction