ATP tennis predict — Jaime Faria vs Luciano Darderi

ATP Clay Estoril · QF

Predicted probability

Jaime Faria

Portugal

56.95%

Luciano Darderi

Italy

43.05%

Average Odds

2.57 / 1.50

Market probability

36.86% / 63.14%

Why This Prediction?

Jaime Faria is the favorite because he has a stronger serve (67.6% vs 62.0% of service points won), a higher Elo rating (1788 vs 1774) and the advantage of playing in his home country.

Player Comparison

1788.1 Elo 1774.1

1795.4 Elo (surface) 1842.1

40 Wins 89

23 Wins (surface) 69

11 Last 15 form 10

1 Head-to-head wins 1

1.103 Dominance ratio 0.805

88 Rank 21

23.0 Age 24.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Jaime Faria

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–1L · 88.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Luciano Darderi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–4L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jaime Faria Luciano Darderi

1st Serve In %

59.6%

58.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.2%

71.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.0%

48.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.7%

54.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.63

0.77

Double Faults per Service Game

0.41

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

57.8%

52.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.3%

71.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.5%

52.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.9%

36.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.7%

57.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.36

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jaime Faria Luciano Darderi

Break Points Saved %

67.1%

68.8%

Break Points Converted %

43.0%

40.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.0%

71.2%

Break Points Converted %

44.3%

48.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Jaime Faria 1 – 1 Luciano Darderi

Clay Estoril · 2026-07-24

QF

Luciano Darderi #21

Jaime Faria #88

2-6 7-5 6-2

7 Aces 4

4 Double Faults 1

93 Service Points 93

60 First Serve In 49

39 First Serve Won 31

15 Second Serve Won 25

6 Break Points Saved 8

10 Break Points Faced 11

35 Winners 27

45 Unforced Errors 36

1.5 Average Odds 2.6

Clay Santiago · 2025-02-24

R32

Jaime Faria #87

Luciano Darderi #59

6-3 6-4

12 Aces 1

3 Double Faults 2

59 Service Points 60

40 First Serve In 33

33 First Serve Won 24

11 Second Serve Won 13

4 Break Points Saved 5

4 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Oeiras 1 CH · 2022-03-28

Q1

Luciano Darderi #313

Jaime Faria #1975

6-0 6-1

1 Aces 1

2 Double Faults 2

44 Service Points 48

24 First Serve In 25

18 First Serve Won 15

15 Second Serve Won 4