ATP tennis predict — Jaime Faria vs Lorenzo Musetti

ATP Hard Cincinnati · R16 23:00

Predicted probability

Jaime Faria

Portugal

51.34%

Lorenzo Musetti

Italy

48.66%

Average Odds

3.02 / 1.38

Market probability

31.36% / 68.64%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1814.1 Elo 1848.8

1668.9 Elo (surface) 1686.5

45 Wins 213

15 Wins (surface) 105

10 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.106 Dominance ratio 0.724

79 Rank 15

23.0 Age 24.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Jaime Faria

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–1L · 88.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Lorenzo Musetti

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

11 matches with market odds since 2026-07-27.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jaime Faria Lorenzo Musetti

1st Serve In %

59.6%

53.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.2%

65.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.0%

44.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.0%

26.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.7%

45.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.63

0.27

Double Faults per Service Game

0.41

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

57.8%

63.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.3%

68.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.5%

50.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.9%

39.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.7%

54.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.17

Double Faults per Service Game

0.36

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jaime Faria Lorenzo Musetti

Break Points Saved %

67.1%

54.5%

Break Points Converted %

43.0%

35.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.0%

65.6%

Break Points Converted %

44.3%

49.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Jaime Faria 0 – 0 Lorenzo Musetti

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-20

R16

Lorenzo Musetti #15

Jaime Faria #79

7-5 6-2

4 Aces 6

4 Double Faults 1

60 Service Points 49

31 First Serve In 34

22 First Serve Won 26

11 Second Serve Won 11

0 Break Points Saved 0

4 Break Points Faced 1

9 Winners 18

29 Unforced Errors 15

1.4 Average Odds 3.0

Jaime Faria vs Lorenzo Musetti — Prediction