ATP tennis predict — Jaime Faria vs Hugo Gaston

ATP Hard Hangzhou · R16 13:30

Predicted probability

Jaime Faria

Portugal

63.54%

Hugo Gaston

France

36.46%

Average Odds

1.48 / 2.62

Market probability

63.90% / 36.10%

Why This Prediction?

Jaime Faria is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1960 vs 1846), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1867 vs 1824) and a stronger serve (65.7% vs 63.7% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1960.0 Elo 1846.4

1867.0 Elo (surface) 1823.8

47 Wins 94

17 Wins (surface) 48

9 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.200 Dominance ratio 1.247

68 Rank 97

23.1 Age 26.0

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Jaime Faria

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–1L · 88.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Hugo Gaston

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–5L · 44.4%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jaime Faria Hugo Gaston

1st Serve In %

59.3%

54.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.3%

70.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.6%

50.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.6%

36.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.7%

47.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.64

0.19

Double Faults per Service Game

0.44

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

57.8%

57.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.3%

68.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.5%

48.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.9%

33.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.7%

51.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.20

Double Faults per Service Game

0.36

0.15

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jaime Faria Hugo Gaston

Break Points Saved %

64.2%

52.5%

Break Points Converted %

43.2%

45.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.0%

53.9%

Break Points Converted %

44.3%

37.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Jaime Faria and Hugo Gaston have never played each other.

Jaime Faria vs Hugo Gaston — Prediction