ATP tennis predict — Jaime Faria vs Gonzalo Bueno

ATP Clay Estoril · R16

Predicted probability

Jaime Faria

Portugal

68.44%

Gonzalo Bueno

Peru

31.56%

Average Odds

1.17 / 4.96

Market probability

80.91% / 19.09%

Why This Prediction?

Jaime Faria is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1779 vs 1636), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1784 vs 1661) and a stronger serve (68.0% vs 58.2% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1779.0 Elo 1635.5

1783.7 Elo (surface) 1661.0

39 Wins 8

22 Wins (surface) 6

11 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.014 Dominance ratio 0.851

88 Rank 180

23.0 Age 22.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Jaime Faria

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–1L · 88.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Gonzalo Bueno

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–3L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jaime Faria Gonzalo Bueno

1st Serve In %

59.6%

61.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.2%

62.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.0%

51.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.0%

28.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.7%

53.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.63

0.18

Double Faults per Service Game

0.41

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

57.8%

58.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.3%

60.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.5%

45.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.9%

34.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.7%

43.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.12

Double Faults per Service Game

0.36

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jaime Faria Gonzalo Bueno

Break Points Saved %

67.1%

68.8%

Break Points Converted %

43.0%

48.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.0%

64.6%

Break Points Converted %

44.3%

31.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Jaime Faria 0 – 0 Gonzalo Bueno

Clay Estoril · 2026-07-23

R16

Jaime Faria #88

Gonzalo Bueno #180

6-2 6-4

5 Aces 0

4 Double Faults 3

48 Service Points 55

31 First Serve In 31

26 First Serve Won 19

8 Second Serve Won 11

0 Break Points Saved 2

1 Break Points Faced 6

19 Winners 6

27 Unforced Errors 27

1.2 Average Odds 5.0

Jaime Faria vs Gonzalo Bueno — Prediction