ATP tennis predict — Jaime Faria vs Casper Ruud

ATP Clay Gstaad · R16

Predicted probability

Jaime Faria

Portugal

42.28%

Casper Ruud

Norway

57.72%

Average Odds

4.11 / 1.23

Market probability

23.03% / 76.97%

Why This Prediction?

Casper Ruud is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1931 vs 1778), a higher Elo rating (1873 vs 1777) and more wins on clay courts (189 vs 21).

Player Comparison

1776.9 Elo 1872.8

1778.0 Elo (surface) 1930.5

38 Wins 349

21 Wins (surface) 189

11 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.071 Dominance ratio 1.343

92 Rank 13

22.9 Age 27.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Jaime Faria

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–1L · 88.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Casper Ruud

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

10 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jaime Faria Casper Ruud

1st Serve In %

59.6%

64.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.2%

73.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.0%

54.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.0%

27.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.7%

50.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.63

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.41

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

57.8%

60.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.3%

70.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.5%

49.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.9%

29.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.7%

56.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.22

Double Faults per Service Game

0.36

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jaime Faria Casper Ruud

Break Points Saved %

67.1%

71.8%

Break Points Converted %

43.0%

38.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.0%

53.2%

Break Points Converted %

44.3%

42.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Jaime Faria 0 – 1 Casper Ruud

Clay Gstaad · 2026-07-16

R16

Casper Ruud #13

Jaime Faria #92

6-7 6-4 6-2

6 Aces 3

4 Double Faults 3

106 Service Points 92

61 First Serve In 61

47 First Serve Won 45

18 Second Serve Won 19

10 Break Points Saved 5

14 Break Points Faced 6

43 Winners 28

42 Unforced Errors 33

1.2 Average Odds 4.1

Hard Davis Cup WG1 R1: NOR vs POR · 2024-09-13

RR

Casper Ruud #9

Jaime Faria #157

7-6(3) 6-2

- Aces -

- Double Faults -

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

- First Serve Won -

- Second Serve Won -

- Break Points Saved -

- Break Points Faced -

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Jaime Faria vs Casper Ruud — Prediction