ATP tennis predict — Jaime Faria vs Adam Walton

ATP Hard Cincinnati · 3. round 23:00

Predicted probability

Jaime Faria

Portugal

44.73%

Adam Walton

Australia

55.27%

Average Odds

1.67 / 2.21

Market probability

56.96% / 43.04%

Why This Prediction?

Adam Walton is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1769 vs 1636), a stronger serve (71.6% vs 64.2% of service points won) and fewer double faults per game (0.06 vs 0.20).

Player Comparison

1799.9 Elo 1785.2

1636.4 Elo (surface) 1768.7

44 Wins 48

14 Wins (surface) 36

10 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.123 Dominance ratio 1.439

79 Rank 98

23.0 Age 27.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Jaime Faria

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–1L · 88.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Adam Walton

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 7W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–3L · 70.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–6L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

30 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jaime Faria Adam Walton

1st Serve In %

59.6%

61.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.2%

71.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.0%

54.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.0%

30.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.7%

51.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.63

0.60

Double Faults per Service Game

0.41

0.15

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

57.8%

60.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.3%

65.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.5%

51.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.9%

25.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.7%

51.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.47

Double Faults per Service Game

0.36

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jaime Faria Adam Walton

Break Points Saved %

67.1%

62.7%

Break Points Converted %

43.0%

42.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.0%

53.4%

Break Points Converted %

44.3%

48.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Jaime Faria 0 – 0 Adam Walton

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-18

3. round

Jaime Faria #79

Adam Walton #98

4-6 6-4 7-6

17 Aces 12

11 Double Faults 1

101 Service Points 97

58 First Serve In 57

47 First Serve Won 41

21 Second Serve Won 22

6 Break Points Saved 4

9 Break Points Faced 7

38 Winners 30

43 Unforced Errors 32

1.7 Average Odds 2.2

Jaime Faria vs Adam Walton — Prediction