ATP tennis predict — Jacopo Vasami vs Juan Pablo Varillas

Challenger Clay San Marino challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Jacopo Vasami

Italy

52.48%

Juan Pablo Varillas

Peru

47.52%

Average Odds

1.62 / 2.21

Market probability

57.70% / 42.30%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1635.4 Elo 1638.5

1624.2 Elo (surface) 1657.0

24 Wins (Challenger) 214

23 Wins (surface) 211

10 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.960 Dominance ratio 1.048

362 Rank 274

18.6 Age 30.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Jacopo Vasami

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Juan Pablo Varillas

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-06-29.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jacopo Vasami Juan Pablo Varillas

1st Serve In %

57.6%

56.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.7%

69.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.0%

53.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.6%

27.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

31.0%

49.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.33

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.6%

57.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.6%

71.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.9%

51.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.4%

30.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.1%

55.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.23

0.47

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jacopo Vasami Juan Pablo Varillas

Break Points Saved %

62.5%

69.0%

Break Points Converted %

0.0%

50.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

52.9%

54.1%

Break Points Converted %

40.4%

43.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Jacopo Vasami 0 – 0 Juan Pablo Varillas

Clay San Marino challenger · 2026-07-28

1. round

Juan Pablo Varillas #274

Jacopo Vasami #362

6-2 6-2

3 Aces 2

6 Double Faults 0

53 Service Points 40

34 First Serve In 24

22 First Serve Won 19

5 Second Serve Won 13

4 Break Points Saved 0

8 Break Points Faced 0

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.2 Average Odds 1.6

Jacopo Vasami vs Juan Pablo Varillas — Prediction