ATP tennis predict — Jacob Fearnley vs Tristan Boyer

Challenger Hard Bloomfield Hills challenger · R16

Predicted probability

Jacob Fearnley

Great Britain

63.56%

Tristan Boyer

USA

36.44%

Average Odds

1.45 / 2.60

Market probability

64.20% / 35.80%

Why This Prediction?

Jacob Fearnley is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1838 vs 1744), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1609 vs 1540) and a better head-to-head record against Tristan Boyer (1-0).

Player Comparison

1838.1 Elo 1744.4

1609.2 Elo (surface) 1539.6

52 Wins (Challenger) 86

35 Wins (surface) 30

11 Last 15 form 11

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.041 Dominance ratio 1.093

121 Rank 166

25.0 Age 25.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Jacob Fearnley

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–2L · 81.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Tristan Boyer

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–4L · 63.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jacob Fearnley Tristan Boyer

1st Serve In %

59.6%

62.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.1%

71.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.6%

49.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.4%

30.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.1%

49.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.53

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.43

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.8%

62.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.0%

75.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.2%

49.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.9%

32.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.5%

46.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.34

0.49

Double Faults per Service Game

0.42

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jacob Fearnley Tristan Boyer

Break Points Saved %

62.4%

63.3%

Break Points Converted %

42.7%

40.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

47.5%

63.9%

Break Points Converted %

43.2%

40.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Jacob Fearnley 1 – 0 Tristan Boyer

Hard Bloomfield Hills challenger · 2026-07-23

R16

Jacob Fearnley #121

Tristan Boyer #166

6-4 6-4

1 Aces 3

7 Double Faults 3

58 Service Points 74

38 First Serve In 45

31 First Serve Won 32

10 Second Serve Won 10

1 Break Points Saved 5

2 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.6

Hard Miami Masters · 2025-03-19

Q2

Jacob Fearnley #83

Tristan Boyer #111

6-2 6-4

4 Aces 6

6 Double Faults 0

54 Service Points 62

29 First Serve In 41

25 First Serve Won 25

11 Second Serve Won 9

3 Break Points Saved 2

4 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Jacob Fearnley vs Tristan Boyer — Prediction