ATP tennis predict — Jacob Fearnley vs Sebastian Ofner

ATP Hard Montreal · qualification - 1. round

Predicted probability

Jacob Fearnley

Great Britain

64.05%

Sebastian Ofner

Austria

35.95%

Average Odds

1.47 / 2.57

Market probability

63.61% / 36.39%

Why This Prediction?

Jacob Fearnley is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1851 vs 1682) and a stronger return game (41.8% vs 36.8% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1851.3 Elo 1682.3

1658.8 Elo (surface) 1720.9

37 Wins 104

19 Wins (surface) 30

6 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.970 Dominance ratio 0.889

110 Rank 124

25.0 Age 30.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Jacob Fearnley

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–2L · 81.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Sebastian Ofner

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–6L · 14.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jacob Fearnley Sebastian Ofner

1st Serve In %

59.6%

58.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.1%

72.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.6%

45.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.4%

25.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.1%

50.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.53

0.47

Double Faults per Service Game

0.43

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.8%

56.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.0%

69.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.2%

46.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.9%

31.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.5%

40.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.34

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.42

0.38

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jacob Fearnley Sebastian Ofner

Break Points Saved %

62.4%

62.3%

Break Points Converted %

42.7%

40.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

47.5%

55.4%

Break Points Converted %

43.2%

34.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Jacob Fearnley 0 – 0 Sebastian Ofner

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-01

qualification - 1. round

Jacob Fearnley #110

Sebastian Ofner #124

7-6 6-2

5 Aces 6

2 Double Faults 5

58 Service Points 74

39 First Serve In 37

28 First Serve Won 28

13 Second Serve Won 10

3 Break Points Saved 5

5 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.6

Jacob Fearnley vs Sebastian Ofner — Prediction