ATP tennis predict — Jacob Fearnley vs Roberto Carballes Baena

Grand Slam Hard US Open · qualification - 1. round 17:00

Predicted probability

Jacob Fearnley

Great Britain

75.88%

Roberto Carballes Baena

Spain

24.12%

Average Odds

1.16 / 4.82

Market probability

80.60% / 19.40%

Why This Prediction?

Jacob Fearnley is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1824 vs 1680), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1671 vs 1574) and a stronger return game (41.6% vs 35.0% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1823.8 Elo 1680.4

1671.1 Elo (surface) 1573.8

39 Wins 186

21 Wins (surface) 49

7 Last 15 form 6

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.195 Dominance ratio 1.068

107 Rank 190

25.1 Age 33.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Jacob Fearnley

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–2L · 81.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Roberto Carballes Baena

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jacob Fearnley Roberto Carballes Baena

1st Serve In %

59.6%

62.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.1%

69.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.6%

54.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.4%

27.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.1%

55.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.53

0.46

Double Faults per Service Game

0.43

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.8%

62.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.0%

65.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.2%

48.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.9%

31.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.5%

54.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.34

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.42

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jacob Fearnley Roberto Carballes Baena

Break Points Saved %

62.4%

59.2%

Break Points Converted %

42.7%

34.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

47.5%

55.6%

Break Points Converted %

43.2%

55.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Jacob Fearnley 1 – 0 Roberto Carballes Baena

Hard US Open · 2026-08-24

qualification - 1. round

Jacob Fearnley #100

Roberto Carballes Baena #209

7-6 6-3

7 Aces 1

7 Double Faults 5

87 Service Points 70

51 First Serve In 35

41 First Serve Won 23

15 Second Serve Won 20

7 Break Points Saved 0

8 Break Points Faced 2

30 Winners 8

50 Unforced Errors 26

1.2 Average Odds 4.8

Clay Barcelona · 2025-04-14

R32

Jacob Fearnley #74

Roberto Carballes Baena #55

6-1 7-5

4 Aces 2

1 Double Faults 2

69 Service Points 71

40 First Serve In 38

26 First Serve Won 19

15 Second Serve Won 14

7 Break Points Saved 10

9 Break Points Faced 16

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Jacob Fearnley vs Roberto Carballes Baena — Prediction