ATP tennis predict — Jacob Fearnley vs Michael Zheng

Challenger Hard Bloomfield Hills challenger · SF

Predicted probability

Jacob Fearnley

Great Britain

57.19%

Michael Zheng

USA

42.81%

Average Odds

2.21 / 1.61

Market probability

42.15% / 57.85%

Why This Prediction?

Jacob Fearnley is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1860 vs 1737), better recent form (13 wins in his last 15 matches vs 10) and a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1652 vs 1632).

Player Comparison

1859.7 Elo 1736.8

1652.3 Elo (surface) 1632.3

54 Wins (Challenger) 42

37 Wins (surface) 42

13 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.055 Dominance ratio 1.186

121 Rank 120

25.0 Age 22.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Jacob Fearnley

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–2L · 81.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Michael Zheng

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 7W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–4L · 69.2%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jacob Fearnley Michael Zheng

1st Serve In %

59.6%

54.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.1%

69.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.6%

48.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.4%

26.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.1%

52.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.53

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.43

0.35

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.8%

56.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.0%

77.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.2%

48.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.9%

29.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.5%

51.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.34

0.59

Double Faults per Service Game

0.42

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jacob Fearnley Michael Zheng

Break Points Saved %

62.4%

52.5%

Break Points Converted %

42.7%

35.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

47.5%

69.2%

Break Points Converted %

43.2%

43.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Jacob Fearnley 0 – 0 Michael Zheng

Hard Bloomfield Hills challenger · 2026-07-25

SF

Jacob Fearnley #121

Michael Zheng #120

6-3 6-4

8 Aces 2

2 Double Faults 4

57 Service Points 66

34 First Serve In 37

29 First Serve Won 30

14 Second Serve Won 10

0 Break Points Saved 4

0 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.2 Average Odds 1.6

Jacob Fearnley vs Michael Zheng — Prediction