ATP tennis predict — Jacob Fearnley vs Mackenzie Mcdonald

Challenger Hard Quebec City challenger · 1. round 03:05

Predicted probability

Jacob Fearnley

Great Britain

73.12%

Mackenzie Mcdonald

USA

26.88%

Average Odds

1.52 / 2.42

Market probability

61.42% / 38.58%

Why This Prediction?

Jacob Fearnley is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1828 vs 1587), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1658 vs 1591) and a stronger return game (41.8% vs 39.0% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1828.0 Elo 1587.4

1658.4 Elo (surface) 1591.1

55 Wins (Challenger) 136

38 Wins (surface) 118

12 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.079 Dominance ratio 1.064

107 Rank 144

25.1 Age 31.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Jacob Fearnley

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–2L · 81.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Mackenzie Mcdonald

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jacob Fearnley Mackenzie Mcdonald

1st Serve In %

59.6%

63.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.1%

66.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.6%

56.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.4%

28.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.1%

47.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.53

0.57

Double Faults per Service Game

0.43

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.8%

64.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.0%

65.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.2%

51.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.9%

32.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.5%

50.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.34

0.32

Double Faults per Service Game

0.42

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jacob Fearnley Mackenzie Mcdonald

Break Points Saved %

62.4%

60.0%

Break Points Converted %

42.7%

35.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

47.5%

54.8%

Break Points Converted %

43.2%

42.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Jacob Fearnley 0 – 0 Mackenzie Mcdonald

Hard Quebec City challenger · 2026-08-20

1. round

Jacob Fearnley #107

Mackenzie Mcdonald #144

6-4 7-5

2 Aces 1

3 Double Faults 3

73 Service Points 70

39 First Serve In 40

26 First Serve Won 23

19 Second Serve Won 16

3 Break Points Saved 3

5 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.4

Jacob Fearnley vs Mackenzie Mcdonald — Prediction