ATP tennis predict — Jacob Fearnley vs Luka Pavlovic

Grand Slam Hard US Open · qualification - 2. round 17:00

Predicted probability

Jacob Fearnley

Great Britain

71.58%

Luka Pavlovic

France

28.42%

Average Odds

1.22 / 4.01

Market probability

76.67% / 23.33%

Why This Prediction?

Jacob Fearnley is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1835 vs 1610), a stronger return game (42.8% vs 32.3% of return points won) and a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1687 vs 1650).

Player Comparison

1834.8 Elo 1610.5

1686.6 Elo (surface) 1650.2

40 Wins 6

22 Wins (surface) 3

8 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.209 Dominance ratio 0.826

100 Rank 203

25.1 Age 26.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Jacob Fearnley

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–2L · 81.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Luka Pavlovic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–4L · 55.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jacob Fearnley Luka Pavlovic

1st Serve In %

59.6%

53.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.1%

74.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.6%

45.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.4%

24.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.1%

43.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.53

0.84

Double Faults per Service Game

0.43

0.35

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.8%

63.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.0%

71.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.2%

52.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.9%

26.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.5%

40.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.34

0.67

Double Faults per Service Game

0.42

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jacob Fearnley Luka Pavlovic

Break Points Saved %

62.4%

63.6%

Break Points Converted %

42.7%

29.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

47.5%

62.1%

Break Points Converted %

43.2%

31.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Jacob Fearnley 0 – 0 Luka Pavlovic

Hard US Open · 2026-08-26

qualification - 2. round

Jacob Fearnley #100

Luka Pavlovic #203

6-4 6-7 6-4

2 Aces 11

9 Double Faults 3

93 Service Points 108

58 First Serve In 68

46 First Serve Won 49

18 Second Serve Won 17

4 Break Points Saved 5

6 Break Points Faced 9

24 Winners 24

28 Unforced Errors 36

1.2 Average Odds 4.0

Jacob Fearnley vs Luka Pavlovic — Prediction