ATP tennis predict — Jacob Fearnley vs Jurij Rodionov

Grand Slam Hard US Open · qualification - 3. round 17:00

Predicted probability

Jacob Fearnley

Great Britain

71.97%

Jurij Rodionov

Austria

28.03%

Average Odds

1.32 / 3.06

Market probability

69.86% / 30.14%

Why This Prediction?

Jacob Fearnley is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1843 vs 1667), a stronger return game (42.3% vs 33.0% of return points won) and a stronger serve (65.2% vs 63.9% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1842.6 Elo 1667.0

1705.7 Elo (surface) 1711.5

41 Wins 67

23 Wins (surface) 28

8 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.215 Dominance ratio 0.913

100 Rank 143

25.1 Age 27.3

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Jacob Fearnley

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–2L · 81.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Jurij Rodionov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jacob Fearnley Jurij Rodionov

1st Serve In %

59.6%

59.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.1%

72.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.6%

48.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.4%

28.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.1%

43.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.53

0.61

Double Faults per Service Game

0.43

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.8%

60.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.0%

70.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.2%

48.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.9%

30.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.5%

47.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.34

0.43

Double Faults per Service Game

0.42

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jacob Fearnley Jurij Rodionov

Break Points Saved %

62.4%

64.9%

Break Points Converted %

42.7%

37.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

47.5%

59.4%

Break Points Converted %

43.2%

31.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Jacob Fearnley 0 – 0 Jurij Rodionov

Hard US Open · 2026-08-28

qualification - 3. round

Jurij Rodionov #143

Jacob Fearnley #100

4-6 6-4 6-4

6 Aces 5

10 Double Faults 3

95 Service Points 96

63 First Serve In 52

48 First Serve Won 38

12 Second Serve Won 24

7 Break Points Saved 6

10 Break Points Faced 8

33 Winners 15

27 Unforced Errors 21

3.1 Average Odds 1.3

Jacob Fearnley vs Jurij Rodionov — Prediction