ATP tennis predict — Jacob Fearnley vs Jan Kumstat

Challenger Hard Olbia challenger · R16 11:00

Predicted probability

Jacob Fearnley

Great Britain

58.39%

Jan Kumstat

Czech Republic

41.61%

Average Odds

1.48 / 2.46

Market probability

62.44% / 37.56%

Why This Prediction?

Jacob Fearnley is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1800 vs 1648), more wins on hard courts (24 vs 0) and a stronger return game (41.6% vs 33.5% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1881.2 Elo 1924.2

1799.8 Elo (surface) 1648.1

59 Wins (Challenger) 31

42 Wins (surface) 6

12 Last 15 form 14

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.139 Dominance ratio 0.906

96 Rank 191

25.2 Age 19.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Jacob Fearnley

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–3L · 76.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Jan Kumstat

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 15W–1L · 93.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

29 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jacob Fearnley Jan Kumstat

1st Serve In %

59.6%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

72.1%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.6%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.4%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.1%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.53

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.43

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.9%

56.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.8%

69.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.5%

51.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.8%

22.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.4%

44.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.40

0.55

Double Faults per Service Game

0.41

0.36

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jacob Fearnley Jan Kumstat

Break Points Saved %

62.4%

—

Break Points Converted %

42.7%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.4%

60.9%

Break Points Converted %

44.6%

29.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Jacob Fearnley and Jan Kumstat have never played each other.

Jacob Fearnley vs Jan Kumstat — Prediction