ATP tennis predict — Jacob Fearnley vs Jakub Mensik

ATP Hard Montreal · 2. round 23:00

Predicted probability

Jacob Fearnley

Great Britain

46.19%

Jakub Mensik

Czech Republic

53.81%

Average Odds

2.96 / 1.40

Market probability

32.11% / 67.89%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1869.6 Elo 1850.9

1705.3 Elo (surface) 1681.3

39 Wins 100

21 Wins (surface) 73

8 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.079 Dominance ratio 1.041

110 Rank 17

25.1 Age 20.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Jacob Fearnley

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–2L · 81.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Jakub Mensik

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–4L · 63.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jacob Fearnley Jakub Mensik

1st Serve In %

59.6%

61.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.1%

72.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.6%

52.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.4%

21.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.1%

55.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.53

0.51

Double Faults per Service Game

0.43

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.8%

57.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.0%

74.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.2%

54.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.9%

32.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.5%

48.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.34

0.67

Double Faults per Service Game

0.42

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jacob Fearnley Jakub Mensik

Break Points Saved %

62.4%

60.9%

Break Points Converted %

42.7%

44.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

47.5%

66.7%

Break Points Converted %

43.2%

54.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Jacob Fearnley 0 – 0 Jakub Mensik

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-06

2. round

Jakub Mensik #17

Jacob Fearnley #110

6-3 3-6 6-3

5 Aces 9

3 Double Faults 2

87 Service Points 88

55 First Serve In 44

38 First Serve Won 34

15 Second Serve Won 23

5 Break Points Saved 6

9 Break Points Faced 9

0 Winners 0

0 Unforced Errors 0

1.4 Average Odds 3.0

Jacob Fearnley vs Jakub Mensik — Prediction