ATP tennis predict — Jacob Fearnley vs Daniil Glinka

Challenger Hard Olbia challenger · 1. round 11:00

Predicted probability

Jacob Fearnley

Great Britain

66.69%

Daniil Glinka

Estonia

33.31%

Average Odds

1.46 / 2.54

Market probability

63.50% / 36.50%

Why This Prediction?

Jacob Fearnley is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1871 vs 1752), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1782 vs 1746) and a stronger return game (39.8% vs 30.1% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1870.8 Elo 1752.4

1782.1 Elo (surface) 1745.5

58 Wins (Challenger) 86

41 Wins (surface) 80

12 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.139 Dominance ratio 1.159

96 Rank 178

25.2 Age 26.4

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Jacob Fearnley

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–3L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Daniil Glinka

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–4L · 73.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

32 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jacob Fearnley Daniil Glinka

1st Serve In %

59.6%

61.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.1%

71.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.6%

47.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.4%

23.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.1%

44.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.53

0.50

Double Faults per Service Game

0.43

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.3%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

73.8%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.9%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.6%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.7%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.47

Double Faults per Service Game

0.45

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jacob Fearnley Daniil Glinka

Break Points Saved %

62.4%

60.0%

Break Points Converted %

42.7%

42.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.1%

49.1%

Break Points Converted %

46.7%

42.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Jacob Fearnley and Daniil Glinka have never played each other.

Jacob Fearnley vs Daniil Glinka — Prediction