ATP tennis predict — Jacob Fearnley vs Alexis Galarneau

Challenger Hard Quebec City challenger · R16 02:10

Predicted probability

Jacob Fearnley

Great Britain

71.46%

Alexis Galarneau

Canada

28.54%

Average Odds

1.39 / 2.83

Market probability

67.06% / 32.94%

Why This Prediction?

Jacob Fearnley is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1835 vs 1658), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1674 vs 1610) and a stronger return game (41.5% vs 36.5% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1834.6 Elo 1657.8

1674.3 Elo (surface) 1609.7

56 Wins (Challenger) 195

39 Wins (surface) 164

12 Last 15 form 10

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.079 Dominance ratio 0.939

107 Rank 185

25.1 Age 27.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Jacob Fearnley

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–2L · 81.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Alexis Galarneau

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jacob Fearnley Alexis Galarneau

1st Serve In %

59.6%

62.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.1%

68.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.6%

49.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.4%

26.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.1%

48.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.53

0.65

Double Faults per Service Game

0.43

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.0%

72.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.2%

47.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.9%

23.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.5%

45.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.34

0.52

Double Faults per Service Game

0.42

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jacob Fearnley Alexis Galarneau

Break Points Saved %

62.4%

65.8%

Break Points Converted %

42.7%

32.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

47.5%

54.3%

Break Points Converted %

43.2%

43.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Jacob Fearnley 1 – 0 Alexis Galarneau

Hard Quebec City challenger · 2026-08-21

R16

Jacob Fearnley #107

Alexis Galarneau #185

6-2 6-3

4 Aces 1

3 Double Faults 6

49 Service Points 56

29 First Serve In 28

24 First Serve Won 14

13 Second Serve Won 14

0 Break Points Saved 5

1 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.8

Grass Newport challenger · 2026-07-11

SF

Jacob Fearnley #159

Alexis Galarneau #179

6-7 6-3 6-4

2 Aces 5

5 Double Faults 9

98 Service Points 101

56 First Serve In 62

37 First Serve Won 48

22 Second Serve Won 17

6 Break Points Saved 7

11 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.9

Jacob Fearnley vs Alexis Galarneau — Prediction