ATP tennis predict — Jacob Fearnley vs Adrian Mannarino

ATP Hard Montreal · 1. round

Predicted probability

Jacob Fearnley

Great Britain

72.89%

Adrian Mannarino

France

27.11%

Average Odds

1.56 / 2.41

Market probability

60.71% / 39.29%

Why This Prediction?

Jacob Fearnley is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1860 vs 1691), a better head-to-head record against Adrian Mannarino (1-0) and a stronger return game (39.5% vs 35.9% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1860.5 Elo 1691.3

1682.3 Elo (surface) 1736.9

38 Wins 412

20 Wins (surface) 280

7 Last 15 form 6

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.026 Dominance ratio 1.065

110 Rank 47

25.0 Age 38.1

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Jacob Fearnley

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–2L · 81.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Adrian Mannarino

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jacob Fearnley Adrian Mannarino

1st Serve In %

59.6%

54.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.1%

70.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.6%

47.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.4%

25.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.1%

52.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.53

0.37

Double Faults per Service Game

0.43

0.35

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.8%

56.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.0%

72.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.2%

49.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.9%

33.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.5%

53.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.34

0.43

Double Faults per Service Game

0.42

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Jacob Fearnley Adrian Mannarino

Break Points Saved %

62.4%

53.3%

Break Points Converted %

42.7%

35.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

47.5%

59.6%

Break Points Converted %

43.2%

47.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Jacob Fearnley 1 – 0 Adrian Mannarino

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-04

1. round

Jacob Fearnley #110

Adrian Mannarino #47

7-6 6-4

6 Aces 2

7 Double Faults 7

64 Service Points 77

32 First Serve In 35

25 First Serve Won 26

16 Second Serve Won 18

2 Break Points Saved 5

5 Break Points Faced 9

20 Winners 9

41 Unforced Errors 31

1.6 Average Odds 2.4

Hard Rennes CH · 2024-09-09

QF

Jacob Fearnley #164

Adrian Mannarino #46

6-3 6-3

8 Aces 3

3 Double Faults 1

53 Service Points 46

37 First Serve In 29

30 First Serve Won 16

7 Second Serve Won 9

4 Break Points Saved 2

5 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Jacob Fearnley vs Adrian Mannarino — Prediction