ATP tennis predict — J J Wolf vs Shintaro Mochizuki

ATP Hard Cincinnati · qualification - 1. round 04:35

Predicted probability

J J Wolf

USA

58.51%

Shintaro Mochizuki

Japan

41.49%

Average Odds

1.53 / 2.43

Market probability

61.36% / 38.64%

Why This Prediction?

J J Wolf is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1774 vs 1609), a higher Elo rating (1728 vs 1663) and a stronger serve (64.1% vs 59.3% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1727.7 Elo 1663.4

1773.7 Elo (surface) 1608.7

74 Wins 53

60 Wins (surface) 35

6 Last 15 form 8

2 Head-to-head wins 0

0.891 Dominance ratio 1.011

282 Rank 117

27.6 Age 23.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

J J Wolf

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–5L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-06-30.

Shintaro Mochizuki

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–3L · 78.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-06-03.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

J J Wolf Shintaro Mochizuki

1st Serve In %

54.1%

49.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.5%

70.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.6%

46.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.2%

28.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.0%

55.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.52

0.21

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.39

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.3%

56.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.8%

70.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.0%

47.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

22.6%

33.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.5%

60.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.55

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.37

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

J J Wolf Shintaro Mochizuki

Break Points Saved %

53.3%

60.9%

Break Points Converted %

36.8%

48.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.7%

48.2%

Break Points Converted %

32.3%

42.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

J J Wolf 2 – 0 Shintaro Mochizuki

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-12

qualification - 1. round

J J Wolf #282

Shintaro Mochizuki #117

6-2 2-6 6-3

6 Aces 5

6 Double Faults 5

68 Service Points 87

33 First Serve In 45

25 First Serve Won 30

17 Second Serve Won 15

3 Break Points Saved 11

7 Break Points Faced 16

17 Winners 24

31 Unforced Errors 44

1.5 Average Odds 2.4

Hard Rome CH · 2022-07-11

R16

J J Wolf #111

Shintaro Mochizuki #360

6-3 7-6(1)

10 Aces 2

3 Double Faults 4

69 Service Points 77

37 First Serve In 42

28 First Serve Won 25

17 Second Serve Won 17

1 Break Points Saved 6

3 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Las Vegas CH · 2021-10-25

R32

J J Wolf #195

Shintaro Mochizuki #393

6-3 7-5

6 Aces 2

3 Double Faults 8

85 Service Points 68

47 First Serve In 36

35 First Serve Won 25

19 Second Serve Won 14

8 Break Points Saved 5

9 Break Points Faced 8