ATP tennis predict — J J Wolf vs Hayato Matsuoka

Challenger Hard Vancouver challenger · QF

Predicted probability

J J Wolf

USA

67.44%

Hayato Matsuoka

Japan

32.56%

Average Odds

1.26 / 3.70

Market probability

74.60% / 25.40%

Why This Prediction?

J J Wolf is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1741 vs 1585), a higher Elo rating (1693 vs 1585) and more wins on hard courts (60 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1693.0 Elo 1584.8

1741.0 Elo (surface) 1585.0

107 Wins (Challenger) 39

97 Wins (surface) 38

9 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.030 Dominance ratio 1.063

563 Rank 328

27.6 Age 21.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

J J Wolf

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–5L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-06-30.

Hayato Matsuoka

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–4L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

J J Wolf Hayato Matsuoka

1st Serve In %

54.1%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

71.5%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.6%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.2%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.0%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.52

0.23

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.3%

58.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.8%

69.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.0%

43.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

22.6%

23.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.5%

49.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.55

0.50

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

J J Wolf Hayato Matsuoka

Break Points Saved %

53.3%

64.3%

Break Points Converted %

36.8%

66.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.7%

56.9%

Break Points Converted %

32.3%

45.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

J J Wolf 0 – 0 Hayato Matsuoka

Hard Vancouver challenger · 2026-07-31

QF

J J Wolf #563

Hayato Matsuoka #328

4-6 7-5 6-3

12 Aces 7

4 Double Faults 1

102 Service Points 106

68 First Serve In 61

50 First Serve Won 45

17 Second Serve Won 25

2 Break Points Saved 6

4 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.7

J J Wolf vs Hayato Matsuoka — Prediction