ATP tennis predict — Izan Almazan Valiente vs Matteo Covato

Challenger Clay Biella challenger · qualification - 1. round 11:30

Predicted probability

Izan Almazan Valiente

Spain

76.51%

Matteo Covato

Italy

23.49%

Average Odds

1.08 / 6.68

Market probability

86.08% / 13.92%

Why This Prediction?

Izan Almazan Valiente is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1552 vs 1174), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1494 vs 1280) and more career match wins (10 vs 5).

Player Comparison

1552.5 Elo 1174.4

1494.2 Elo (surface) 1279.5

10 Wins (Challenger) 5

3 Wins (surface) 5

9 Last 15 form 2

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.854 Dominance ratio 0.752

491 Rank 753

20.5 Age None

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Izan Almazan Valiente

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-06-28.

Matteo Covato

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

4 matches with market odds since 2026-07-05.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Izan Almazan Valiente Matteo Covato

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

1st Serve In %

58.7%

61.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.5%

64.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.7%

41.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.1%

34.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.9%

46.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.20

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.39

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Izan Almazan Valiente Matteo Covato

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

Break Points Saved %

58.3%

59.5%

Break Points Converted %

48.0%

43.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Izan Almazan Valiente 0 – 0 Matteo Covato

Clay Biella challenger · 2026-09-13

qualification - 1. round

Izan Almazan Valiente #491

Matteo Covato #753

6-3 6-1

2 Aces 1

3 Double Faults 1

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

26 First Serve Won 23

10 Second Serve Won 5

2 Break Points Saved 5

2 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.1 Average Odds 6.7

Izan Almazan Valiente vs Matteo Covato — Prediction