ATP tennis predict — Ivan Marrero Curbelo vs Maks Kasnikowski

Challenger Hard Istanbul challenger · 1. round 13:00

Predicted probability

Ivan Marrero Curbelo

Spain

30.45%

Maks Kasnikowski

Poland

69.55%

Average Odds

3.90 / 1.23

Market probability

23.98% / 76.02%

Why This Prediction?

Maks Kasnikowski is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1621 vs 1504), a higher Elo rating (1627 vs 1529) and more wins on hard courts (7 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1529 Elo 1627.4

1503.8 Elo (surface) 1621.0

28 Wins (Challenger) 107

18 Wins (surface) 64

10 Last 15 form 9

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.036 Dominance ratio 1.126

350 Rank 258

28.0 Age 23.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Ivan Marrero Curbelo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–5L · 28.6%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-07-19.

Maks Kasnikowski

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–3L · 76.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ivan Marrero Curbelo Maks Kasnikowski

1st Serve In %

—

59.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

72.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

56.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

27.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

46.5%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.35

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.6%

60.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.9%

66.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.4%

53.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.1%

33.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.0%

48.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.23

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ivan Marrero Curbelo Maks Kasnikowski

Break Points Saved %

—

55.9%

Break Points Converted %

—

42.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.9%

59.0%

Break Points Converted %

42.7%

42.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Ivan Marrero Curbelo 1 – 0 Maks Kasnikowski

Hard Istanbul challenger · 2026-09-07

1. round

Maks Kasnikowski #258

Ivan Marrero Curbelo #350

4-6 7-5 6-0

0 Aces 6

2 Double Faults 2

79 Service Points 82

56 First Serve In 51

33 First Serve Won 38

9 Second Serve Won 16

4 Break Points Saved 6

10 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.2 Average Odds 3.9

Hard Grodzisk Mazowiecki challenger · 2026-08-06

R16

Ivan Marrero Curbelo #360

Maks Kasnikowski #231

2-6 7-6 6-1

2 Aces 11

3 Double Faults 2

92 Service Points 83

65 First Serve In 51

36 First Serve Won 35

17 Second Serve Won 14

8 Break Points Saved 1

12 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

4.5 Average Odds 1.2

Ivan Marrero Curbelo vs Maks Kasnikowski — Prediction