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Ivan Marrero Curbelo vs Luca Potenza — Prediction

Challenger Hard Porto challenger · qualification - 1. round 16:30

Predicted probability

Luca Potenza

Italy

57.81%

Average Odds

2.38  /  1.51

Market probability

38.82%  /  61.18%

Why This Prediction?

Luca Potenza is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1561 vs 1494), a higher Elo rating (1558 vs 1542) and a stronger return game (40.9% vs 39.6% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1541.6 Elo 1558.2
1493.5 Elo (surface) 1560.9
28 Wins (Challenger) 56
18 Wins (surface) 33
9 Last 15 form 8
0 Head-to-head wins 0
1.017 Dominance ratio 0.962
339 Rank 538
28.0 Age 26.2
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Ivan Marrero Curbelo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–5L · 28.6%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-07-19.

Luca Potenza

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-06-21.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ivan Marrero Curbelo Luca Potenza

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

1st Serve In %

64.6%
60.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.9%
65.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.4%
47.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.1%
29.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.0%
58.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.23
0.46

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24
0.22

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ivan Marrero Curbelo Luca Potenza

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

Break Points Saved %

56.9%
63.0%

Break Points Converted %

42.7%
40.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Ivan Marrero Curbelo and Luca Potenza have never played each other.

Ivan Marrero Curbelo — Last 10

L L W L L W L W W L

Luca Potenza — Last 10

L L L W W W W W L L