ATP tennis predict — Ivan Marrero Curbelo vs Andres Andrade

Challenger Hard Kingston 2 challenger · R16 20:00

Predicted probability

Ivan Marrero Curbelo

Spain

44.68%

Andres Andrade

Ecuador

55.32%

Average Odds

3.32 / 1.26

Market probability

27.51% / 72.49%

Why This Prediction?

Andres Andrade is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1593 vs 1540), more wins on hard courts (3 vs 0) and more career match wins (7 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1564.1 Elo 1590.0

1539.6 Elo (surface) 1593.4

27 Wins (Challenger) 72

17 Wins (surface) 37

10 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.110 Dominance ratio 0.873

351 Rank 243

27.9 Age 27.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Ivan Marrero Curbelo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–5L · 28.6%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-07-19.

Andres Andrade

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-06-03.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ivan Marrero Curbelo Andres Andrade

1st Serve In %

—

62.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

70.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

50.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

32.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

54.7%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.31

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.6%

57.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.9%

63.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.4%

46.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.1%

26.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.0%

49.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.23

0.25

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ivan Marrero Curbelo Andres Andrade

Break Points Saved %

—

80.0%

Break Points Converted %

—

55.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.9%

45.6%

Break Points Converted %

42.7%

35.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Ivan Marrero Curbelo 0 – 0 Andres Andrade

Hard Kingston 2 challenger · 2026-08-26

R16

Andres Andrade #243

Ivan Marrero Curbelo #351

6-4 6-2

0 Aces 1

4 Double Faults 3

56 Service Points 54

39 First Serve In 25

26 First Serve Won 20

4 Second Serve Won 16

6 Break Points Saved 3

10 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.3

Ivan Marrero Curbelo vs Andres Andrade — Prediction