ATP tennis predict — Inaki Montes De La Torre vs Matt Ponchet

Challenger Hard Roehampton 2 challenger · qualification - 1. round 12:00

Predicted probability

Inaki Montes De La Torre

Spain

68.95%

Matt Ponchet

France

31.05%

Average Odds

1.07 / 7.42

Market probability

87.40% / 12.60%

Why This Prediction?

Inaki Montes De La Torre is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1603 vs 1382), more career match wins (71 vs 1) and a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1602 vs 1510).

Player Comparison

1602.7 Elo 1382.2

1601.8 Elo (surface) 1510.3

71 Wins (Challenger) 1

43 Wins (surface) 1

11 Last 15 form 1

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.947 Dominance ratio 0.839

275 Rank 784

23.9 Age 22.2

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Inaki Montes De La Torre

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–2L · 80.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-06-23.

Matt Ponchet

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

3 matches with market odds since 2026-07-19.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Inaki Montes De La Torre Matt Ponchet

1st Serve In %

58.2%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

55.5%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.7%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.8%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.7%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.12

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.53

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.4%

56.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.5%

68.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.0%

49.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.8%

30.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.5%

42.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.36

0.25

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Inaki Montes De La Torre Matt Ponchet

Break Points Saved %

56.7%

—

Break Points Converted %

50.0%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

44.9%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

36.0%

18.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Inaki Montes De La Torre 0 – 0 Matt Ponchet

Hard Roehampton 2 challenger · 2026-08-23

qualification - 1. round

Inaki Montes De La Torre #275

Matt Ponchet #784

6-1 6-3

1 Aces 2

3 Double Faults 2

60 Service Points 50

44 First Serve In 33

30 First Serve Won 17

8 Second Serve Won 5

9 Break Points Saved 2

10 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.1 Average Odds 7.4

Inaki Montes De La Torre vs Matt Ponchet — Prediction