ATP tennis predict — Inaki Montes De La Torre vs Mathys Erhard

Challenger Hard Mallorca challenger · 1. round 16:30

Predicted probability

Inaki Montes De La Torre

Spain

57.58%

Mathys Erhard

France

42.42%

Average Odds

1.59 / 2.24

Market probability

58.49% / 41.51%

Why This Prediction?

Inaki Montes De La Torre is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1642 vs 1611), a stronger return game (43.8% vs 37.7% of return points won) and a better head-to-head record against Mathys Erhard (2-0).

Player Comparison

1631.1 Elo 1639.4

1642.0 Elo (surface) 1611.3

75 Wins (Challenger) 79

47 Wins (surface) 21

10 Last 15 form 10

2 Head-to-head wins 0

1.182 Dominance ratio 1.084

274 Rank 339

23.9 Age 24.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Inaki Montes De La Torre

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–2L · 80.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-06-23.

Mathys Erhard

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 5W–6L · 45.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Inaki Montes De La Torre Mathys Erhard

1st Serve In %

58.2%

64.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

55.5%

63.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.7%

48.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.8%

32.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.7%

62.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.12

Double Faults per Service Game

0.53

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.4%

61.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.5%

72.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.0%

51.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.8%

28.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.5%

41.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.36

0.53

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Inaki Montes De La Torre Mathys Erhard

Break Points Saved %

56.7%

65.1%

Break Points Converted %

50.0%

47.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

44.9%

51.0%

Break Points Converted %

36.0%

28.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Inaki Montes De La Torre 2 – 0 Mathys Erhard

Hard Mallorca challenger · 2026-09-02

1. round

Inaki Montes De La Torre #274

Mathys Erhard #339

6-2 3-6 6-4

6 Aces 7

5 Double Faults 5

100 Service Points 88

61 First Serve In 52

43 First Serve Won 38

19 Second Serve Won 14

6 Break Points Saved 6

9 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.2

Clay Plovdiv challenger · 2026-06-24

R16

Inaki Montes De La Torre #312

Mathys Erhard #384

3-6 6-4 6-2

0 Aces 2

5 Double Faults 7

83 Service Points 81

46 First Serve In 52

31 First Serve Won 37

14 Second Serve Won 12

2 Break Points Saved 3

7 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.3

Hard Oeiras 2 CH · 2026-01-26

R16

Inaki Montes De La Torre #414

Mathys Erhard #333

6-3 6-3

4 Aces 1

11 Double Faults 5

75 Service Points 56

49 First Serve In 31

33 First Serve Won 18

11 Second Serve Won 9

6 Break Points Saved 3

8 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Inaki Montes De La Torre vs Mathys Erhard — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Inaki Montes De La Torre — Last 10

Mathys Erhard — Last 10