ATP tennis predict — Inaki Montes De La Torre vs Jacob Fearnley

Challenger Hard Porto challenger · R16 13:30

Predicted probability

Inaki Montes De La Torre

Spain

28.83%

Jacob Fearnley

Great Britain

71.17%

Average Odds

3.33 / 1.30

Market probability

28.08% / 71.92%

Why This Prediction?

Jacob Fearnley is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1894 vs 1734), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1804 vs 1741) and a stronger serve (63.6% vs 51.6% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1734.0 Elo 1893.9

1741.4 Elo (surface) 1804.5

80 Wins (Challenger) 58

52 Wins (surface) 41

9 Last 15 form 12

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.145 Dominance ratio 1.139

228 Rank 94

24.0 Age 25.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Inaki Montes De La Torre

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–2L · 80.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-06-23.

Jacob Fearnley

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–2L · 81.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Inaki Montes De La Torre Jacob Fearnley

1st Serve In %

58.2%

59.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

55.5%

72.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.7%

48.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.8%

28.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.7%

55.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.12

0.53

Double Faults per Service Game

0.53

0.43

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.8%

56.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.6%

74.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.7%

48.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.9%

33.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.1%

53.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.35

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.40

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Inaki Montes De La Torre Jacob Fearnley

Break Points Saved %

56.7%

62.4%

Break Points Converted %

50.0%

42.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

43.5%

47.5%

Break Points Converted %

33.3%

45.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Inaki Montes De La Torre and Jacob Fearnley have never played each other.

Inaki Montes De La Torre vs Jacob Fearnley — Prediction