ATP tennis predict — Ilya Ivashka vs Marat Sharipov

Challenger Hard Jinan challenger · 1. round 05:05

Predicted probability

Ilya Ivashka

Belarus

42.60%

Marat Sharipov

Russia

57.40%

Average Odds

2.01 / 1.74

Market probability

46.40% / 53.60%

Why This Prediction?

Marat Sharipov is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1808 vs 1774), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1809 vs 1762) and a stronger serve (65.8% vs 64.7% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1773.6 Elo 1808.5

1762.1 Elo (surface) 1808.5

140 Wins (Challenger) 65

124 Wins (surface) 56

13 Last 15 form 12

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.044 Dominance ratio 1.005

237 Rank 234

32.6 Age 24.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Ilya Ivashka

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 8W–1L · 88.9%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–1L · 90.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-07-12.

Marat Sharipov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-06-29.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ilya Ivashka Marat Sharipov

1st Serve In %

60.9%

52.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.0%

70.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.8%

41.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.7%

14.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.5%

42.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.31

0.40

Double Faults per Service Game

0.45

0.50

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.2%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

71.7%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

61.0%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.3%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.7%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.92

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ilya Ivashka Marat Sharipov

Break Points Saved %

62.6%

62.5%

Break Points Converted %

45.3%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

51.2%

64.7%

Break Points Converted %

37.5%

34.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Ilya Ivashka 1 – 0 Marat Sharipov

Hard Shanghai challenger · 2026-09-13

F

Ilya Ivashka #393

Marat Sharipov #442

6-4 3-6 7-6

7 Aces 13

0 Double Faults 1

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

50 First Serve Won 54

12 Second Serve Won 15

0 Break Points Saved 2

2 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.8 Average Odds 1.9

Ilya Ivashka vs Marat Sharipov — Prediction