ATP tennis predict — Ilya Ivashka vs Marat Sharipov

Challenger Hard Shanghai challenger · F 10:00

Predicted probability

Ilya Ivashka

Belarus

44.88%

Marat Sharipov

Russia

55.12%

Average Odds

1.80 / 1.90

Market probability

51.35% / 48.65%

Why This Prediction?

Marat Sharipov is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1754 vs 1741), a higher Elo rating (1757 vs 1754) and a stronger serve (65.8% vs 64.7% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1754.4 Elo 1757.1

1740.5 Elo (surface) 1754.0

137 Wins (Challenger) 54

121 Wins (surface) 45

11 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.044 Dominance ratio 1.005

393 Rank 442

32.6 Age 23.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Ilya Ivashka

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–1L · 90.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-07-12.

Marat Sharipov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-06-29.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ilya Ivashka Marat Sharipov

1st Serve In %

60.9%

52.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.0%

70.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.8%

41.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.7%

14.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.5%

42.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.31

0.40

Double Faults per Service Game

0.45

0.50

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.1%

54.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.3%

81.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

55.5%

50.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.6%

18.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.6%

40.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.67

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.12

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ilya Ivashka Marat Sharipov

Break Points Saved %

62.6%

62.5%

Break Points Converted %

45.3%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

51.1%

56.5%

Break Points Converted %

34.4%

33.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Ilya Ivashka 0 – 0 Marat Sharipov

Hard Shanghai challenger · 2026-09-13

F

Ilya Ivashka #393

Marat Sharipov #442

6-4 3-6 7-6

7 Aces 13

0 Double Faults 1

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

50 First Serve Won 54

12 Second Serve Won 15

0 Break Points Saved 2

2 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.8 Average Odds 1.9

Ilya Ivashka vs Marat Sharipov — Prediction