ATP tennis predict — Ilya Ivashka vs Kaichi Uchida

Challenger Hard Jinan challenger · qualification - round of 16 06:00

Predicted probability

Ilya Ivashka

Belarus

76.80%

Kaichi Uchida

Japan

23.20%

Average Odds

1.08 / 6.63

Market probability

85.99% / 14.01%

Why This Prediction?

Ilya Ivashka is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1765 vs 1461), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1753 vs 1474) and more wins on hard courts (91 vs 4).

Player Comparison

1764.9 Elo 1461.4

1752.8 Elo (surface) 1473.5

138 Wins (Challenger) 166

122 Wins (surface) 137

11 Last 15 form 2

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.044 Dominance ratio 0.791

237 Rank 386

32.6 Age 32.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Ilya Ivashka

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–1L · 90.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-07-12.

Kaichi Uchida

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

10 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ilya Ivashka Kaichi Uchida

1st Serve In %

60.9%

62.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.0%

71.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.8%

47.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.7%

29.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.5%

48.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.31

0.56

Double Faults per Service Game

0.45

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.1%

56.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.3%

65.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

55.5%

44.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.6%

28.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.6%

48.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ilya Ivashka Kaichi Uchida

Break Points Saved %

62.6%

63.2%

Break Points Converted %

45.3%

33.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

51.1%

44.6%

Break Points Converted %

34.4%

34.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Ilya Ivashka 1 – 0 Kaichi Uchida

Hard Nur-Sultan CH · 2019-09-30

R32

Ilya Ivashka #132

Kaichi Uchida #286

6-1 6-4

9 Aces 2

5 Double Faults 8

49 Service Points 56

32 First Serve In 24

27 First Serve Won 13

8 Second Serve Won 14

1 Break Points Saved 10

2 Break Points Faced 14

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Ilya Ivashka vs Kaichi Uchida — Prediction