ATP tennis predict — Ilya Ivashka vs Harold Mayot

Challenger Hard Grodzisk Mazowiecki challenger · R16 11:00

Predicted probability

Ilya Ivashka

Belarus

40.41%

Harold Mayot

France

59.59%

Average Odds

1.71 / 1.86

Market probability

52.10% / 47.90%

Why This Prediction?

Harold Mayot is the favorite because he has fewer double faults per game (0.13 vs 0.22), a stronger return game (43.6% vs 38.6% of return points won) and a stronger serve (64.6% vs 61.1% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1649.5 Elo 1640.9

1664.7 Elo (surface) 1668.3

130 Wins (Challenger) 130

114 Wins (surface) 83

13 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.992 Dominance ratio 1.230

402 Rank 255

32.4 Age 24.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Ilya Ivashka

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–1L · 90.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-07-12.

Harold Mayot

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–7L · 56.2%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

29 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ilya Ivashka Harold Mayot

1st Serve In %

60.9%

63.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.0%

70.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.8%

45.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.7%

27.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.5%

40.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.31

0.60

Double Faults per Service Game

0.45

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.1%

62.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.3%

76.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

55.5%

50.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.6%

41.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.6%

68.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.18

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ilya Ivashka Harold Mayot

Break Points Saved %

62.6%

64.1%

Break Points Converted %

45.3%

35.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

51.1%

67.7%

Break Points Converted %

34.4%

39.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Ilya Ivashka 0 – 0 Harold Mayot

Hard Grodzisk Mazowiecki challenger · 2026-08-06

R16

Ilya Ivashka #402

Harold Mayot #255

-

- Aces -

- Double Faults -

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

- First Serve Won -

- Second Serve Won -

- Break Points Saved -

- Break Points Faced -

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.7 Average Odds 1.9

Ilya Ivashka vs Harold Mayot — Prediction