ATP tennis predict — Ilya Ivashka vs Beibit Zhukayev

Challenger Hard Jinan challenger · qualification - 1. round 09:15

Predicted probability

Ilya Ivashka

Belarus

67.39%

Beibit Zhukayev

Kazakhstan

32.61%

Average Odds

1.28 / 3.42

Market probability

72.77% / 27.23%

Why This Prediction?

Ilya Ivashka is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1753 vs 1539), a higher Elo rating (1765 vs 1591) and more wins on hard courts (91 vs 17).

Player Comparison

1764.9 Elo 1590.7

1752.8 Elo (surface) 1539.2

138 Wins (Challenger) 98

122 Wins (surface) 83

11 Last 15 form 8

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.044 Dominance ratio 1.073

237 Rank 503

32.6 Age 26.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Ilya Ivashka

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–1L · 90.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-07-12.

Beibit Zhukayev

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

3 matches with market odds since 2026-08-11.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ilya Ivashka Beibit Zhukayev

1st Serve In %

60.9%

61.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.0%

77.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.8%

42.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.7%

25.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.5%

47.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.31

1.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.45

0.56

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.1%

59.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.3%

75.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

55.5%

50.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.6%

28.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.6%

49.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.83

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ilya Ivashka Beibit Zhukayev

Break Points Saved %

62.6%

63.2%

Break Points Converted %

45.3%

40.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

51.1%

72.3%

Break Points Converted %

34.4%

33.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Ilya Ivashka 1 – 0 Beibit Zhukayev

Hard Los Cabos · 2023-07-31

R32

Ilya Ivashka #113

Beibit Zhukayev #258

3-6 6-3 7-6(5)

8 Aces 7

9 Double Faults 3

104 Service Points 88

57 First Serve In 50

41 First Serve Won 36

25 Second Serve Won 20

8 Break Points Saved 0

10 Break Points Faced 2

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Ilya Ivashka vs Beibit Zhukayev — Prediction