ATP tennis predict — Ilya Ivashka vs Akira Santillan

Challenger Hard Zhangjiagang challenger · R16 05:05

Predicted probability

Ilya Ivashka

Belarus

63.16%

Akira Santillan

Australia

36.84%

Average Odds

1.32 / 3.15

Market probability

70.47% / 29.53%

Why This Prediction?

Ilya Ivashka is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1655 vs 1549), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1672 vs 1561) and a stronger return game (39.8% vs 36.3% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1654.5 Elo 1548.7

1671.7 Elo (surface) 1561.3

132 Wins (Challenger) 162

116 Wins (surface) 114

12 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.102 Dominance ratio 1.016

393 Rank 331

32.5 Age 29.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Ilya Ivashka

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–1L · 90.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-07-12.

Akira Santillan

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–8L · 27.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ilya Ivashka Akira Santillan

1st Serve In %

60.9%

59.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.0%

73.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.8%

53.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.7%

27.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.5%

44.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.31

0.78

Double Faults per Service Game

0.45

0.37

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.1%

62.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

55.5%

50.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.6%

30.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.6%

46.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ilya Ivashka Akira Santillan

Break Points Saved %

62.6%

53.6%

Break Points Converted %

45.3%

45.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

51.1%

52.1%

Break Points Converted %

34.4%

44.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Ilya Ivashka 0 – 0 Akira Santillan

Hard Zhangjiagang challenger · 2026-09-03

R16

Ilya Ivashka #393

Akira Santillan #331

6-4 4-6 6-1

3 Aces 6

5 Double Faults 7

68 Service Points 72

39 First Serve In 42

20 First Serve Won 32

19 Second Serve Won 16

5 Break Points Saved 2

11 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.1

Ilya Ivashka vs Akira Santillan — Prediction