ATP tennis predict — Ilia Simakin vs Philip Sekulic

Challenger Hard Phan Thiet 3 challenger · QF 05:30

Predicted probability

Ilia Simakin

Russia

78.61%

Philip Sekulic

Australia

21.39%

Average Odds

1.24 / 3.79

Market probability

75.35% / 24.65%

Why This Prediction?

Ilia Simakin is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1826 vs 1550), a higher Elo rating (1779 vs 1557) and a stronger serve (66.1% vs 63.1% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1778.6 Elo 1556.7

1826.1 Elo (surface) 1550.5

74 Wins (Challenger) 68

71 Wins (surface) 68

12 Last 15 form 8

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.071 Dominance ratio 1.179

275 Rank 353

22.9 Age 23.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Ilia Simakin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 11W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–1L · 90.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Philip Sekulic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–6L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-07-01.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ilia Simakin Philip Sekulic

1st Serve In %

64.0%

62.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.3%

69.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.2%

50.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.3%

30.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

42.3%

44.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.81

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.12

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.4%

60.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

56.5%

68.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

64.0%

46.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

20.8%

34.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

58.8%

61.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.34

0.58

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.38

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ilia Simakin Philip Sekulic

Break Points Saved %

85.7%

56.2%

Break Points Converted %

0.0%

27.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

54.3%

46.3%

Break Points Converted %

46.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Ilia Simakin 1 – 0 Philip Sekulic

Hard Phan Thiet 3 challenger · 2026-09-11

QF

Ilia Simakin #275

Philip Sekulic #353

6-4 6-3

1 Aces 4

4 Double Faults 4

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

20 First Serve Won 18

13 Second Serve Won 12

7 Break Points Saved 0

12 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.2 Average Odds 3.8

Hard Chennai CH · 2026-02-09

R16

Ilia Simakin #214

Philip Sekulic #512

4-6 7-5 7-6(1)

14 Aces 2

7 Double Faults 1

119 Service Points 102

70 First Serve In 62

56 First Serve Won 44

23 Second Serve Won 23

9 Break Points Saved 5

11 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Ilia Simakin vs Philip Sekulic — Prediction