ATP tennis predict — Ilia Simakin vs Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

Challenger Hard Zhangjiagang challenger · SF 05:10

Predicted probability

Ilia Simakin

Russia

70.01%

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

Malaysia

29.99%

Average Odds

1.25 / 3.67

Market probability

74.59% / 25.41%

Why This Prediction?

Ilia Simakin is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1764 vs 1613), a higher Elo rating (1704 vs 1585) and a stronger serve (66.5% vs 55.8% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1704.4 Elo 1585.5

1763.6 Elo (surface) 1613.1

70 Wins (Challenger) 34

67 Wins (surface) 34

10 Last 15 form 11

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.228 Dominance ratio 0.857

275 Rank 551

22.9 Age 22.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Ilia Simakin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 11W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–1L · 90.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-07-07.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ilia Simakin Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

1st Serve In %

64.0%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

75.3%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.2%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.3%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

42.3%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.81

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.12

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.4%

70.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

56.5%

67.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

64.0%

48.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

20.8%

28.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

58.8%

46.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.34

0.53

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ilia Simakin Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

Break Points Saved %

85.7%

—

Break Points Converted %

0.0%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

54.3%

52.7%

Break Points Converted %

46.7%

46.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Ilia Simakin 1 – 0 Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

Hard Zhangjiagang challenger · 2026-09-05

SF

Ilia Simakin #275

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong #551

6-3 6-7 6-3

9 Aces 9

3 Double Faults 4

85 Service Points 91

49 First Serve In 62

39 First Serve Won 48

22 Second Serve Won 12

2 Break Points Saved 2

3 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.2 Average Odds 3.7

Hard Pune CH · 2026-02-23

R32

Ilia Simakin #226

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong #684

4-6 6-2 7-6(10)

6 Aces 1

2 Double Faults 6

96 Service Points 108

59 First Serve In 80

43 First Serve Won 54

23 Second Serve Won 12

5 Break Points Saved 7

7 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Ilia Simakin vs Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong — Prediction