ATP tennis predict — Ilia Simakin vs Max Purcell

Challenger Hard Phan Thiet 3 challenger · SF 05:10

Predicted probability

Ilia Simakin

Russia

57.38%

Max Purcell

Australia

42.62%

Average Odds

2.16 / 1.64

Market probability

43.16% / 56.84%

Why This Prediction?

Ilia Simakin is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1833 vs 1759) and a stronger return game (31.7% vs 30.2% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1786.7 Elo 1826.6

1832.7 Elo (surface) 1758.9

75 Wins (Challenger) 160

72 Wins (surface) 142

13 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.071 Dominance ratio 1.128

275 Rank 803

22.9 Age 28.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Ilia Simakin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 11W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–1L · 90.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Max Purcell

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-08-18.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ilia Simakin Max Purcell

1st Serve In %

64.0%

54.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.3%

76.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.2%

52.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.3%

26.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

42.3%

39.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.81

0.74

Double Faults per Service Game

0.12

0.18

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.4%

64.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

56.5%

75.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

64.0%

54.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

20.8%

25.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

58.8%

51.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.34

0.67

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ilia Simakin Max Purcell

Break Points Saved %

85.7%

63.1%

Break Points Converted %

0.0%

37.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

54.3%

59.0%

Break Points Converted %

46.7%

52.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Ilia Simakin 0 – 0 Max Purcell

Hard Phan Thiet 3 challenger · 2026-09-12

SF

Ilia Simakin #275

Max Purcell #803

6-3 2-6 6-2

3 Aces 4

3 Double Faults 1

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

28 First Serve Won 25

16 Second Serve Won 15

1 Break Points Saved 2

5 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.2 Average Odds 1.6

Ilia Simakin vs Max Purcell — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Ilia Simakin — Last 10

Max Purcell — Last 10