ATP tennis predict — Ilia Simakin vs Matthew Dellavedova

Challenger Hard Zhangjiagang challenger · R16 05:05

Predicted probability

Ilia Simakin

Russia

83.93%

Matthew Dellavedova

Australia

16.07%

Average Odds

1.37 / 2.91

Market probability

67.99% / 32.01%

Why This Prediction?

Ilia Simakin is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1744 vs 1349), a higher Elo rating (1680 vs 1403) and a stronger serve (66.0% vs 60.0% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1680.4 Elo 1403.0

1744.0 Elo (surface) 1348.7

68 Wins (Challenger) 34

65 Wins (surface) 14

8 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.192 Dominance ratio 0.855

275 Rank 293

22.8 Age 26.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Ilia Simakin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 11W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–1L · 90.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Matthew Dellavedova

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

7 matches with market odds since 2026-09-01.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ilia Simakin Matthew Dellavedova

1st Serve In %

64.0%

74.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.3%

61.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.2%

48.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.3%

25.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

42.3%

43.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.81

0.22

Double Faults per Service Game

0.12

0.10

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.4%

74.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

56.5%

66.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

64.0%

51.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

20.8%

29.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

58.8%

45.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.34

0.43

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.14

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ilia Simakin Matthew Dellavedova

Break Points Saved %

85.7%

54.5%

Break Points Converted %

0.0%

61.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

54.3%

56.8%

Break Points Converted %

46.7%

43.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Ilia Simakin 0 – 0 Matthew Dellavedova

Hard Zhangjiagang challenger · 2026-09-03

R16

Ilia Simakin #275

Matthew Dellavedova #293

7-5 6-2

7 Aces 1

1 Double Faults 1

57 Service Points 68

36 First Serve In 60

28 First Serve Won 34

14 Second Serve Won 5

1 Break Points Saved 4

1 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.9

Ilia Simakin vs Matthew Dellavedova — Prediction