ATP tennis predict — Ilia Simakin vs Kasidit Samrej

Challenger Hard Zhangjiagang challenger · F 06:00

Predicted probability

Ilia Simakin

Russia

68.11%

Kasidit Samrej

Thailand

31.89%

Average Odds

1.28 / 3.48

Market probability

73.11% / 26.89%

Why This Prediction?

Ilia Simakin is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1775 vs 1617), a higher Elo rating (1717 vs 1624) and a stronger serve (66.7% vs 56.3% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1717.1 Elo 1623.8

1775.2 Elo (surface) 1616.5

71 Wins (Challenger) 45

68 Wins (surface) 45

11 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.255 Dominance ratio 1.054

275 Rank 486

22.9 Age 25.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Ilia Simakin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 11W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–1L · 90.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Kasidit Samrej

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-08-11.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ilia Simakin Kasidit Samrej

1st Serve In %

64.0%

56.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.3%

67.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.2%

41.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.3%

26.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

42.3%

49.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.81

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.12

0.46

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.4%

62.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

56.5%

76.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

64.0%

45.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

20.8%

30.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

58.8%

53.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.34

0.66

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.51

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ilia Simakin Kasidit Samrej

Break Points Saved %

85.7%

48.4%

Break Points Converted %

0.0%

46.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

54.3%

78.3%

Break Points Converted %

46.7%

39.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Ilia Simakin 0 – 0 Kasidit Samrej

Hard Zhangjiagang challenger · 2026-09-06

F

Ilia Simakin #275

Kasidit Samrej #486

6-3 6-1

2 Aces 8

2 Double Faults 1

45 Service Points 36

28 First Serve In 27

18 First Serve Won 24

4 Second Serve Won 8

1 Break Points Saved 0

5 Break Points Faced 0

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.5

Ilia Simakin vs Kasidit Samrej — Prediction