ATP tennis predict — Ilia Simakin vs Ilya Ivashka

Challenger Hard Zhangjiagang challenger · QF 05:05

Predicted probability

Ilia Simakin

Russia

61.85%

Ilya Ivashka

Belarus

38.15%

Average Odds

1.71 / 2.05

Market probability

54.52% / 45.48%

Why This Prediction?

Ilia Simakin is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1748 vs 1680), a stronger serve (65.8% vs 61.4% of service points won) and a stronger return game (41.2% vs 36.5% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1686.8 Elo 1661.9

1747.7 Elo (surface) 1680.0

69 Wins (Challenger) 133

66 Wins (surface) 117

9 Last 15 form 12

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.205 Dominance ratio 0.947

275 Rank 393

22.9 Age 32.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Ilia Simakin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 11W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–1L · 90.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Ilya Ivashka

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–1L · 90.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-07-12.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ilia Simakin Ilya Ivashka

1st Serve In %

64.0%

60.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.3%

68.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.2%

46.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.3%

26.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

42.3%

52.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.81

0.31

Double Faults per Service Game

0.12

0.45

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.4%

60.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

56.5%

72.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

64.0%

55.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

20.8%

28.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

58.8%

44.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.34

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ilia Simakin Ilya Ivashka

Break Points Saved %

85.7%

62.6%

Break Points Converted %

0.0%

45.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

54.3%

51.1%

Break Points Converted %

46.7%

34.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Ilia Simakin 0 – 0 Ilya Ivashka

Hard Zhangjiagang challenger · 2026-09-04

QF

Ilia Simakin #275

Ilya Ivashka #393

7-6 6-4

7 Aces 7

1 Double Faults 2

68 Service Points 76

39 First Serve In 51

31 First Serve Won 38

19 Second Serve Won 10

4 Break Points Saved 4

5 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.7 Average Odds 2.0

Ilia Simakin vs Ilya Ivashka — Prediction