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Ilia Simakin vs Hunter Heck — Prediction

Challenger Hard Phan Thiet 4 challenger · SF 05:05

Predicted probability

Ilia Simakin

Russia

77.43%

Hunter Heck

USA

22.57%

Average Odds

1.20  /  4.18

Market probability

77.70%  /  22.30%

Why This Prediction?

Ilia Simakin is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1843 vs 1595), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1878 vs 1597) and more wins on hard courts (77 vs 10).

Player Comparison

1842.8 Elo 1595.3
1877.7 Elo (surface) 1597.3
80 Wins (Challenger) 10
77 Wins (surface) 10
14 Last 15 form 9
0 Head-to-head wins 0
1.071 Dominance ratio 0.882
177 Rank 700
22.9 Age 24.4
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Ilia Simakin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 11W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–1L · 90.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Hunter Heck

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–2L · 33.3%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–2L · 60.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-07-12.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ilia Simakin Hunter Heck

1st Serve In %

64.0%
50.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.3%
89.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.2%
68.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.3%
45.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

42.3%
77.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.81
0.29

Double Faults per Service Game

0.12
0.29

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.4%
60.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

56.5%
70.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

64.0%
42.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

20.8%
24.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

58.8%
44.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.34
0.36

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29
0.35

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ilia Simakin Hunter Heck

Break Points Saved %

85.7%
100.0%

Break Points Converted %

0.0%
50.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

54.3%
48.5%

Break Points Converted %

46.7%
35.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Ilia Simakin 0 – 0 Hunter Heck

Hard Phan Thiet 4 challenger · 2026-09-19

SF

Ilia Simakin #177

Hunter Heck #700

6-7 7-5 6-2
12 Aces 5
6 Double Faults 5
- Service Points -
- First Serve In -
43 First Serve Won 35
24 Second Serve Won 25
3 Break Points Saved 4
5 Break Points Faced 9
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
1.2 Average Odds 4.2

Ilia Simakin — Last 10

W W W W W W W W W W

Hunter Heck — Last 10

L W W W W W L W L L