ATP tennis predict — Ilia Simakin vs Gabi Adrian Boitan

Challenger Hard Istanbul challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Ilia Simakin

Russia

76.67%

Gabi Adrian Boitan

Romania

23.33%

Average Odds

1.37 / 2.90

Market probability

67.92% / 32.08%

Why This Prediction?

Ilia Simakin is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1722 vs 1410), a higher Elo rating (1649 vs 1472) and fewer double faults per game (0.14 vs 0.22).

Player Comparison

1648.6 Elo 1472.4

1722.4 Elo (surface) 1409.6

63 Wins (Challenger) 46

60 Wins (surface) 8

6 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.092 Dominance ratio 1.049

294 Rank 429

22.8 Age 27.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Ilia Simakin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 11W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–1L · 90.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Gabi Adrian Boitan

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ilia Simakin Gabi Adrian Boitan

1st Serve In %

64.0%

65.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.3%

68.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.2%

44.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.3%

23.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

42.3%

43.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.81

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.12

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.4%

67.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

56.5%

73.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

64.0%

53.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

20.8%

26.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

58.8%

56.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.34

0.52

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ilia Simakin Gabi Adrian Boitan

Break Points Saved %

85.7%

60.7%

Break Points Converted %

0.0%

40.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

54.3%

75.0%

Break Points Converted %

46.7%

41.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Ilia Simakin 0 – 0 Gabi Adrian Boitan

Hard Istanbul challenger · 2026-08-03

1. round

Ilia Simakin #297

Gabi Adrian Boitan #435

5-7 6-3 6-4

14 Aces 6

6 Double Faults 4

97 Service Points 93

52 First Serve In 61

45 First Serve Won 43

21 Second Serve Won 16

6 Break Points Saved 4

8 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.9

Ilia Simakin vs Gabi Adrian Boitan — Prediction