ATP tennis predict — Ilia Simakin vs Florent Bax

Challenger Hard Istanbul challenger · QF 14:00

Predicted probability

Ilia Simakin

Russia

70.53%

Florent Bax

France

29.47%

Average Odds

1.51 / 2.45

Market probability

61.87% / 38.13%

Why This Prediction?

Ilia Simakin is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1665 vs 1532), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1739 vs 1566) and a stronger return game (40.2% vs 34.6% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1664.8 Elo 1532.0

1738.6 Elo (surface) 1566.4

65 Wins (Challenger) 39

62 Wins (surface) 25

6 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.199 Dominance ratio 0.968

297 Rank 247

22.8 Age 27.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Ilia Simakin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 11W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–1L · 90.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Florent Bax

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-06-10.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ilia Simakin Florent Bax

1st Serve In %

64.0%

74.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.3%

85.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.2%

57.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.3%

35.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

42.3%

41.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.81

1.00

Double Faults per Service Game

0.12

0.36

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.4%

59.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

56.5%

69.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

64.0%

48.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

20.8%

23.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

58.8%

52.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.34

0.26

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ilia Simakin Florent Bax

Break Points Saved %

85.7%

100.0%

Break Points Converted %

0.0%

40.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

54.3%

51.9%

Break Points Converted %

46.7%

27.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Ilia Simakin 0 – 0 Florent Bax

Hard Istanbul challenger · 2026-08-07

QF

Ilia Simakin #297

Florent Bax #247

6-0 6-7 6-4

18 Aces 5

2 Double Faults 5

88 Service Points 83

60 First Serve In 52

52 First Serve Won 39

13 Second Serve Won 15

6 Break Points Saved 3

6 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.5

Ilia Simakin vs Florent Bax — Prediction