ATP tennis predict — Ilia Simakin vs Fajing Sun

Challenger Hard Istanbul challenger · R16 13:30

Predicted probability

Ilia Simakin

Russia

72.30%

Fajing Sun

China

27.70%

Average Odds

1.51 / 2.47

Market probability

62.06% / 37.94%

Why This Prediction?

Ilia Simakin is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1659 vs 1355) and a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1728 vs 1546).

Player Comparison

1659.0 Elo 1354.7

1728.1 Elo (surface) 1545.6

64 Wins (Challenger) 77

61 Wins (surface) 76

6 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.116 Dominance ratio 1.717

297 Rank 326

22.8 Age 29.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Ilia Simakin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 11W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–1L · 90.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Fajing Sun

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–5L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ilia Simakin Fajing Sun

1st Serve In %

64.0%

56.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.3%

60.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.2%

48.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.3%

21.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

42.3%

43.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.81

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.12

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.4%

65.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

56.5%

67.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

64.0%

58.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

20.8%

26.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

58.8%

48.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.34

0.43

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.14

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ilia Simakin Fajing Sun

Break Points Saved %

85.7%

53.6%

Break Points Converted %

0.0%

32.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

54.3%

63.5%

Break Points Converted %

46.7%

42.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Ilia Simakin 0 – 1 Fajing Sun

Hard Istanbul challenger · 2026-08-05

R16

Ilia Simakin #297

Fajing Sun #326

6-3 7-6

4 Aces 1

4 Double Faults 0

68 Service Points 72

33 First Serve In 55

27 First Serve Won 35

24 Second Serve Won 9

1 Break Points Saved 6

1 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.5

Hard Wuxi CH · 2025-05-05

SF

Fajing Sun #289

Ilia Simakin #264

3-6 6-2 6-3

2 Aces 6

3 Double Faults 1

80 Service Points 72

43 First Serve In 43

30 First Serve Won 30

22 Second Serve Won 15

9 Break Points Saved 2

11 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Ilia Simakin vs Fajing Sun — Prediction