ATP tennis predict — Ilia Simakin vs Enzo Aguiard

Challenger Hard Phan Thiet 3 challenger · R16 04:35

Predicted probability

Ilia Simakin

Russia

75.87%

Enzo Aguiard

Australia

24.13%

Average Odds

1.24 / 3.73

Market probability

75.05% / 24.95%

Why This Prediction?

Ilia Simakin is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1816 vs 1629), a higher Elo rating (1766 vs 1637) and more aces per game (0.28 vs 0.26).

Player Comparison

1766.5 Elo 1637.0

1816.2 Elo (surface) 1629.3

73 Wins (Challenger) 11

70 Wins (surface) 11

12 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.071 Dominance ratio 1.015

275 Rank 513

22.9 Age 24.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Ilia Simakin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 11W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–1L · 90.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Enzo Aguiard

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ilia Simakin Enzo Aguiard

1st Serve In %

64.0%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

75.3%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.2%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.3%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

42.3%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.81

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.12

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.4%

62.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

56.5%

74.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

64.0%

50.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

20.8%

27.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

58.8%

49.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.34

0.65

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ilia Simakin Enzo Aguiard

Break Points Saved %

85.7%

—

Break Points Converted %

0.0%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

54.3%

58.7%

Break Points Converted %

46.7%

39.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Ilia Simakin 0 – 0 Enzo Aguiard

Hard Phan Thiet 3 challenger · 2026-09-10

R16

Ilia Simakin #275

Enzo Aguiard #513

6-2 6-0

2 Aces 8

6 Double Faults 2

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

13 First Serve Won 20

8 Second Serve Won 11

4 Break Points Saved 3

9 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.2 Average Odds 3.7

Ilia Simakin vs Enzo Aguiard — Prediction